My interview which has appeared on Wikileaks Central.

Pak-Usa

The Dawn Media Group in partnership with WikiLeaks has been releasing the “Pakistan Papers.” Thus far, some of the revelations include the following: US was concerned that Pakistan would oppose its policies at the United Nations; US was worried Pakistan would purchase oil from Iran, allowing them to get a foothold in Pakistan; Pakistan’s government was upset with US funding for the Pakistan military, which led to increased civil-military tensions; Pakistan’s military asked for continued drone coverage; the US has had troops deployed on Pakistan soil; Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been financing jihadist groups in Pakistan and the US did not provide Benazir Bhutto with proper security. (more…)

By Raza Rumi

The dramatic events of the past few days have far-reaching repercussions on the future of global terrorism and US policy in Afghanistan and West Asia.

Osama bin Laden may have been removed from the scene, but Al Qaeda lives as a hybrid conglomerate with formidable allies in Pakistan and elsewhere.

Whilst a plethora of questions on Bin Laden’s capture and death remains unanswered, Pakistan has, once again, come under global scrutiny admittedly for the right reasons.

Most Pakistanis are dumbfounded by the sudden discovery of Bin Laden virtually under the nose of the military and the mysterious way in which Operation Geronimo was carried out by the United States.

Despite the hard talk, it is clear that the US-Pakistan relationship is not going to be majorly affected by the recent turn of events.

After US President Barack Obama’s acknowledgement of Pakistan’s assistance, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has argued that Pakistan should not be unfairly pressured. The British Prime Minister has more or less taken the same line. (more…)

China and Taiwan are sworn enemies. In 2009, the total volume of their trade was 110 billion dollars. India’s trade is expanding with China, and the current volume is nearly 60 billion dollars per annum. On the other hand, the total volume of formal trade between India and Pakistan is around a billion dollars. What does this say about keeping rational economic interest over emotional narratives of nationalism and politics? The politics and troubled past has ruined South Asia’s present and potentially its future. It is time to review the situation and reverse this trend.

True, we have unresolved issues with India. It is also well-known that India has not respected the United Nations’ resolutions on Kashmir. But our mercurial rulers have not been consistent in their stance either. The last of our long list of dictators, General Musharraf announced his willingness to forego our conventional position on Kashmir. However, due to various factors he could not translate his statements into action. The Indian side also displayed its lack of foresight in engaging further with Musharraf and preferred pandering to the shrill hate-and-crush-Pakistan domestic lobbies.

This is why granting of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status is more of a political and national security issue than a clear cut economic choice that a sensible country makes while choosing its development trajectory. Trade between India and Pakistan is a joke compared to trade between India and its other global partners. There is a consensus that India-Pakistan trade is a win-win situation for the two countries only if the Indian and Pakistani states were to find a mechanism where effective dialogue takes place and the politics of bickering gives way to a rational discourse.

The SAARC member countries including Pakistan and India concluded the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) treaty in 2004 which allowed for freer trade and aimed to reduce trade barriers and tariffs in two phases. The World Bank studies also estimated that both Pakistan and India by entering into a ‘preferential trade system’ like SAFTA were likely to gain. But the conflict and political differences have prevented from this to happen. Despite the limits trade has been increasing due to sheer necessity.

For centuries trade has taken place in the region. Today the routes between the two Punjab[s], between Karachi and Mumbai and from Rajasthan and Gujarat into rural Sindh are still valid. Asad Sayeed, a reputed economist based in Karachi states that if normal trade resumes, “regional economic benefits that can accrue on either side will have a multiplier effect.” In fact informal trade that takes place is unknown but quite significant. Yasir Khan writing for The News (July 10, 2010) also highlighted the World Bank estimates of 2002 whereby Indo-Pak trade could expand Pakistan’s Gross National Product by 1.8%. Khan also quoted a study by Peterson Institute of International Economics which estimated informal trade between two countries in the range of $3 billion per annum. The potential therefore is immense.

India will also gain as Pakistan will provide a viable land route for its trade with Central Asia. Most importantly, given India’s energy deficits, normal trade will meet its energy demands and Pakistan can make impressive gains in foreign revenues through rents. It has already been estimated some years ago by the State Bank of Pakistan that the proposed gas pipeline to India could make us earn upto 700 millions dollars per annum.

The exaggerated fears of Indian domination are now a matter of history. Pakistan is already a dumping ground for Chinese goods. Uncompetitive sectors of our economy are already closing down. Pakistan’s private sector is also ready for improved trade relations. During the 1990s, the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry formally supported the granting of MFN status to India. In the previous decade, increased interaction between the business lobbies has resulted in a strong articulation of normal and economically feasible trade with India. Nearly all political parties and prominent voices from the civil society are also in favour of trading with India. Rarely has there been such a consensus in the domestic framework of Pakistan’s mainstream politics.

This brings us to the well known variable – the national security apparatus – which remains dominant in terms of policy process. Many voices in the mainstream media have urged a paradigm shift. For instance, Khaled Ahmad’s recent op-ed published in the Daily Express-Tribune (November 14, 2010) states: “It is time we changed the paradigm of defence in Pakistan and returned to the normalcy of trade and trade routes. Pakistan’s revisionism vis-à-vis India must give way to compulsions of self-correction; and Pakistan must become open to international finance as an important adjunct to South Asia’s rising economy.” This is not a lone voice anymore. Big business of Pakistan is also backing such a demand. Similarly, Indian business lobbies are also ready to make profits given the low transportation costs. A huge market for our exporters, technological gains (such as textile design innovations) and cost saving for consumers and producers are potential gains that Pakistan’s policy makers need to debate.

Public discussions in Pakistan unfortunately are hostage to the half-truths that we follow like parrots. On the other side, the debate is hostage to the terrorism mantra and finding a scapegoat for misgovernance by the post-colonial state. Thus we are locked between two states that have now created populist Frankenstein[s] of public imagination. An imaginary enemy is vital for the realisation of nationhood.

Pakistan is facing an unprecedented crisis: Its state is at war and stagflation is likely to escalate social unrest. The recent floods have resulted in losses of over 10 billion dollars. Our high growth rates, which we prided ourselves for under military regimes, are tales of bygone eras. We need immediate and feasible solutions. Increased trade with India will boost our light engineering and small scale manufacturing sectors and also generate employment. We have to seriously think of this route and not solely depend on the life support systems devised by international finance institutions.

By trading with the enemy, we will not be compromising our principled stand on Kashmir (we could very well have a more reasoned dialogue in a congenial environment) nor give up on our demands with respect to water or the Siachen issue. Political negotiations can continue. But we have to join the South Asian economic progress and share the gains made with millions of Pakistanis.

It is therefore critical that our political parties instead of playing petty politics consider the serious issues of economic recovery and forge a consensus that the security establishment cannot ignore. In any case, dialogue is required between the civil and military institutions where the short term strategy should be conditioned by our long term interests. For this to happen, the civilian democratic forces need to be united. If they have been able to work together on the 18th Amendment, then they are capable of resolving issues and taking joint positions.

Most importantly, Pakistan Army’s survival and strength are linked to a vibrant and growing economy. Long term reforms will take five to ten years to bear fruit. But trade can happen within months provided there is a shift in the policy and a willingness to learn from the China-Taiwan or India-China examples.

India will also need to reassess its over-use of the terrorism card. Pakistan is suffering due to internal conflict and global war in its neighbourhood. Pakistan’s civil and military leadership can only operate out of the box if the Indian bureaucracy allows its political class to make bold strides. The two countries as a start must continue the dialogue even if does not meet the sensational standards of the corporate media.

It would be naïve to expect that the trade-issue will be resolved overnight. However, capitulation to irrational and self-defeating policy paradigm is even worse. We need to take a leap forward simply in our own national interest.

First published in The Friday Times (November 19  2010)

Published here: The recent hullabaloo over the Delhi Commonwealth Games has been followed with much interest in Pakistan. Many have gloated over the inability of the creaky Indian state machinery to deliver in time and address the issues of quality that became apparent with the collapse of an overhead bridge. South Asia now lives in the new information age where despite the distortions created by the mainstream media, it is difficult to hide state failures

Each story of corruption in Delhi has been greeted with a strange familiarity here. Essentially, all narratives of shining and marching India aside, the two nations remain hostage to a postcolonial state and embedded corruption. To cite Pankaj Mishra who wrote a rather scathing piece on the Games’ saga (New York Times, Oct 2, 2010):
“Two weeks ago, a huge footbridge connected to the main stadium collapsed. The federation that runs the games has called the athletes’ housing “uninhabitable.” The organizers have had to hire an army of vicious langur monkeys to keep wild animals from infesting the venues. Pictures of crumbling arenas and filthy toilets are circulating more widely than the beautiful landscapes of the government’s “Incredible India” tourism campaign.”

These issues of self-image and imagined greatness are shared woes of new nation states – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – as they all suffer from this grandiose complex, of military and economic might over others. This is what makes such narratives so troublesome for they distort the essentials of freedom, Independence and the two Partitions of 1947 and 1971 which were all meant to lead to a poverty free and better environment for the ‘masses’. (more…)

This morning arrived with the shocking news of the recent barbarity played out in Pakpattan (formerly known as Ajodhan) when two criminals left bombs outside the shrine of Baba Farid. Eight innocent people, returning from morning prayer, lost their lives and about 2o were injured.

Baba Fariduddin Ganje Shakar’s shrine was the latest victim of terrorism. We have now entered into a decisive phase of the ongoing battle. What is the purpose of attacking a shrine other than the fact that it defines the historical reality of a peaceful and secular Punjab. Baba Farid is revered by Muslims, Sikhs and Hindus of the subcontinent. He is the leading light of Chishti school of Sufism in Indo-Pak subcontinent. Other than his status as a mystic, Baba Farid is the pioneer of modern Punjabi language as it was innovated and refined in the 12th century. The Punjabis across the world consider him as a cultural and spiritual master.

We condemn this brutal attack, this sheer cowardice and barbarity. It is time to fight against this menace of sectarianism and scaring the people of Pakistan. We have lunatics – now dangerous criminals – who are hellbent to destroy our centuries’ old culture.

I am reproducing sections of an article from Manzur Ejaz which narrates the contribution of Baba Farid to the Punjabi language and how times were a commentary on the changing social contours of the Punjab. (more…)

In the final part of this series, Raza Rumi recounts the last few days of the media expedition to India

Pakistani media persons landed back in Delhi after a whirlwind tour of Mumbai and Bangalore. Once back at the Maurya Sheraton, we had the last few days of the tour planned well in advance. A sizeable number of the visitors were taken to the ephemeral Taj. Thankfully this was not mandatory, as some of us wanted to stay back in Delhi, especially those who had seen the Taj during their earlier visits.

Pakistan’s High Commissioner, Mr. Shahid Malik invited us for lunch, and this was my first visit to our stunning High Commission located in Chanakyapuri, New Delhi’s diplomatic enclave. The sumptuous lunch cooked with much aplomb was preceded by a lively discussion about our trip and our impressions regarding the possibility of peace.

Pakistan’s diplomatic haven is a well-designed building merging Islamic, Indian and Western sensibilities. The blue-domed structure merges well with Delhi’s vista of monuments, some well- kept and others neglected. This is an irony, at its best! Nevertheless, this was familiar territory. (more…)

In Part 3 of the series, Raza Rumi visits Bangalore, city of gardens and high tech

After our sojourns in Delhi and Mumbai, the Pakistani media representatives were afforded the opportunity to visit the fulcrum of shining India i.e. Bangalore, now rechristened as Bengaluru, its original name in Kannada. It was not difficult to guess why Bangalore is loved by so many across the globe. Its weather makes it a most unique city, somehow free of South Asian extremes in temperature. Weather aside, even the nature of its residents is fascinating, for it is palpably different from their North Indian counterparts. As we were to find out later, the distant conflicts of belligerent North India matter far less in the tropical climes of this congested yet verdant metropolis.

We were greeted at the airport by a contingent of security apparatchiks and the state police. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had planned country-wide protests over the increased fuel prices that were supposedly causing inflation and misery for the poor. The Pakistani delegation found itself amid a historical moment when the BJP was being backed by the communist parties of India in protesting over the reduction of state subsidies to keep the price of oil low. Hence, the tight security. As Karnataka is ruled by the BJP and regional parties, the strike was a great success, and we found the streets of Bangalore deserted.

The ITC Royal Gardenia Hotel where we stayed was simply stupendous. It had been recently built and was touted as a green haven for its adherence to environmental standards. Designed with an open plan sensibility, it had a feel of expanse and splendour. Special purpose vertical gardens had been created to augment the ambience and blend nature with standard hotel architecture. However, life presents its little ironies, and one could not help notice the ITC (Indian Tobacco Company) ownership of this hotel chain. The corporate world knows well how to whitewash its minor sins and major profits.

Bangalore, lovingly nurtured as an archetypal British cantonment, has always been referred to as the City of Gardens. Its ecology helps create green spaces with plenty of rainfall per annum. However, Bangalore has also transformed over the years due to its emergence as an information technology (IT) hub. In many ways, the Indian IT success story, central to the India-shining narrative, is intertwined with Bangalore and its eminently hospitable mores. Among others, Infosys, a global giant conglomerate, grew and evolved in Bangalore. But there are other hubs too which make Bangalore a success story of contemporary India. (more…)

Part I of the series can be accessed here

In Part II of this series, Raza Rumi travels to India’s thriving megapolis with a media delegation

After a whirlwind Delhi tour, the Pakistani media persons set off for a fleeting visit to Mumbai. If I am not mistaken, ours was the first big delegation to this megapolis that crossed the contemporary fault line between India and Pakistan. Less than a dozen zealot-mercenaries terrorized Mumbai twenty months ago, and now the issue of terrorism has derailed the formal Indo-Pakistan talks.

This was not a very comfortable journey. Not that we were not looked after by our hosts. It was a well-organized tour. But the overdose of Mumbai mantra in Delhi had rattled some of us. What happened there in November 2008 was ghastly and inhuman; and Ajmal Kasab’s nationality stirred public opinion like never before. Thanks to a belligerent media and live telecast of terrorism (almost to the point of glorifying it) the result was what the jihadis had hoped for. Jingoism flourishes in such odd climes and the Mumbai hangover, as we all found, is a potent reality in India.

Within the delegation, I underwent a strange sensation – of a remote, awkward connectedness with the place. Twenty years ago, as an apolitical and naive student I had arrived in Bombay to see my friends from the London School of Economics. This was a ten day long trip, which I shall not forget for many reasons. I found a cosmopolitan buzz, abject poverty and immense human bonding then. I stayed in a building where Bollywood’s long-lasting diva Helen lived, and met scores of young men and women who looked the same but adhered to a different lifestyle. (more…)

I had posted Ali Sardar Jafri’s lovely poem and now a reader Farah Aziz directed me to this blog where a beautiful translation of the poem has been shared.

The setting imperial sun
broke into two parts
On this very Border, yesterday.
The dawn of freedom was wounded
On this very Border, yesterday.
This is the Border of blood,
Tears, sights, and sparks,
Where we had sown hatred
And reaped a harvest of swords.
Here, stars struggled
In the eyes of dear ones.
Here, beloved faces
Flickered in streams of tears.
Here, a mother lost her sons,
A brother, his sister.
This border thrives on blood,
Breathes flames of despise
She slithers like a snake
On the bosom of our land.
She comes to the battlefield
Crested with all her weapons .

I stand on this Border
Waiting for the Tomorrow’s  Happy Dawn.

This is a sensible thing to do. Finally sanity has prevailed. We hope that Pakistan’s neighbours – India, China and Iran help us out in these trying times. Not just cash but with much needed doctors and paramedics to control the outbreak of disease. Millions of people have no stake in power games that the two countries like to play.

Pakistan has accepted an offer of $5 million of flood aid from neighbor and longtime rival India, in a move that could spark a political backlash at home.

In an interview with Indian news channel NDTV, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi described the offer of aid, made last week, as a “very welcome initiative” which the government of Pakistan has agreed to accept, after taking some time to decide. Full story below:

Pakistan accepts flood aid money from rival India – CSMonitor.com.

Manmohan Singh whom I have always held in high regard, disappointed millions in South Asia with his distastefully ill-timed hard talk during his Independence day address. As if Pakistan’s current misery was a time to blow India’s trumpet. He surely was also unaware of what his patriotic Indian poet, Ali Sardar Jafri had written years ago -Dialogue Souldn’t Cease. Here is an Urdu version with a full translation. Perhaps, someone should pass a copy of this poem to the exalted Prime Minister of India.

GUFTGOO BAnD NA HO
BAAT SE BAAT CHALEY
SUBH TAK SHAAM-E-MULAAQAAT CHALEY
HUM PE HAnSTI HUEE
YE TAAROn BHARI RAAT CHALEY (more…)

By Subhojit Goswami

Kolkata, Aug 1: “A dialogue process is not about ‘who wins’ but about empathetic understanding”, came the strong words from Pritha Kejriwal, the Editor-in-Chief, Kindle Magazine, as she started on a solemn note with a critical evaluation of what has taken place with India and Pakistan and what hasn’t in the last 60 years. She was speaking at the Round Table organized by Kindle at the Kolkata Town Hall. The panel discussion riveted on the ongoing Indo-Pak talks and the future that we look up to.

Addressing the ongoing Indo-Pak dialogue as ‘deliberately redundant’, Pritha went on to add that there are forces existing in both India and Pakistan who have systematically instructed people to “confuse mutual hatred with patriotism.” (more…)

Raza Rumi

The elusive quest for peace between India and Pakistan remains hostage to the military-industrial complex at both the global and regional levels. Such is the dynamic unleashed by two imagined “nations” that their existence as states is dependent on a perpetual state of confrontation. More so for Pakistan, given its deeply embedded paranoia, which has assumed a reality of its own. Sixty-two years ago, it was hardly envisioned that the two states would erect an iron-curtain and fight forever. From actual wars to propaganda campaigns the task seems complete now. The oft-repeated phrase ‘trust deficit’ is a natural culmination of this ugly process. Of late, another dimension has been added, i.e. information-deficit as India had marched towards a new phase of its economic development, it has stopped taking interest in transitional Pakistani society and kept the time-warped framework of understanding Pakistan. However, the situation cannot remain static. Policymakers are slow to catch up on both the sides.

Mumbai factor: Twenty months ago, the Mumbai attacks changed the atmosphere created by President Zardari’s unprecedented offers of peace, dialogue and cooperation. The day Zardari made his remarks in a conclave organised by the Hindustan Times in 2008, many observers saw a Mumbai coming. The jihadis of Pakistan and perhaps their counterparts in India were quick to stop this process. Ironic that PPP, a party fed on the Pakistani nationalist rhetoric, thirty years down the road had read the writing on the wall. Pakistan’s future and survival is dependent on a reduction of hostilities with India. More importantly, this also holds the key to correcting the endemic civil-military imbalance. (more…)

Another op-ed for Express-Tribune today

Today the foreign ministers of Pakistan and India will meet. This major development should be welcomed. Sceptical noises of distrust in both countries have been heard and the Kashmiri leaders have issued rejectionist statements.

Subcontinental leaderships have time and again floundered peace. Sometimes it is the recklessness on the Pakistani side and at other times the Indian officialdom chants the trust-deficit mantra. But this must end. Media wisdom about the BJP and the Pakistan military making a durable peace deal has not withstood the test of history. Democracy and peace are interlinked despite the compulsions of playing to the jingoists for electoral gains. In Pakistan, martial rule is over and a BJP government is unlikely in the medium term.

It is time for the two governments to take stock of their fast changing societies and economies. Unlike the mediatised versions, Pakistan is a transformational society. The old governance structures are decaying and power is now distributed among multiple centres, not unlike India. This is why the foreign ministers should negotiate the lifting of media restrictions and let the two countries and their people understand each other. (more…)